Friendly Overlords

The AI that bets smarter.

Six mathematical strategies scanning Polymarket and Kalshi every hour. Long-term edge plays. Daily weather and sports opportunities. Zero guessing — pure data.

219+
Daily weather markets
3,000+
Markets scanned
$0
Polymarket fees
15+
Cities tracked
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Two Systems. One Edge.

Separate strategies for different time horizons, sharing one bankroll with strict allocation rules.

LONG-TERM PLAYS
$650
65% of bankroll
  • 3 mathematical strategies
  • 5¢+ minimum edge per trade
  • 15-25 opportunities per month
  • Hold until resolution
DAILY PLAYS
$350
35% of bankroll
  • 3 signal types (weather, sports, econ)
  • Hourly scan frequency
  • 3-5 best plays per day
  • Capital recycles every 24-48h

Six Strategies. All Mathematical.

LONG-TERM PLAYS

01Combinatorial Arbitrage (Arb)
ACTIVE

When bracket prices sum below $1.00, buy all outcomes for guaranteed profit. Pure math — no prediction needed.

02Cross-Reference Forecasting
ACTIVE

Compare market prices to superior external data sources — weather ensembles, sportsbook consensus, economic models.

03Favorite-Longshot Bias
CALIBRATING

Exploit the documented tendency for bettors to overpay for longshots. 50+ years of academic evidence across markets.

DAILY PLAYS

04Weather Model Divergence
CALIBRATING

GFS + ECMWF + ICON ensembles (122 members) with per-city bias correction vs. Polymarket temperature brackets.

05Sports Line Comparison
ACTIVE

Vig-stripped sportsbook consensus from 40+ bookmakers vs. prediction market prices. Thin but real edges.

06Economic Data Plays
EVENT DAY ONLY

CPI, GDP, FOMC, jobs data — Kalshi bracket pricing vs. Cleveland Fed Nowcast and Bloomberg consensus.

How It Works

1

Hourly Data Fetch

Pull live prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, weather ensembles, and sportsbook APIs.

2

Strategy Scan

Six algorithms check for arb, mispricing, model divergence, and bias patterns.

3

Position Sizing

Kelly Criterion calculates optimal bet size with phase-adjusted fractional limits.

4

Track & Learn

Every prediction logged. Brier score, CLV, and ROI tracked per strategy.

Live Feed Preview

Sample recommendations from the daily brief

COMBINATORIALLONG-TERM

NYC Mar 22 — All temperature brackets

8.2¢risk-free edge
Polymarket
Fees: $0
WEATHERDAILY

Seoul Mar 22 — High temp 50-52°F bracket

14¢edge
Polymarket
Fees: $0
SPORTSDAILY

Celtics beat Bucks tonight

6.1¢edge
Polymarket US
Fees: 0.10%
ECON DATADAILY

March CPI 3.1-3.2% bracket

11¢edge
Kalshi
Fees: $0.02 rebate

Performance

System CLV
Calibrating
Tracking closing line value
Current Phase
Paper
Week 1 of 4
Paper Bankroll
$1,000
Starting capital
Resolved / Needed
0 / 50
For graduation to live

Currently in paper trading phase. All recommendations are logged and tracked but no real money is at risk. Graduation requires 50+ resolved predictions with a Brier score below 0.22.

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